I built a 30-line Python weather bot for PolymarketMost guess April 26 temps - I don’t> NASA GISTEMP data since 1880> Filter April column> Post-1970 linear regression (y = m·x + b)> μ prediction residuals → σ> Normal CDF> exact probability for every bucket (1.15-1.19, 1.20-1.24 etc.)Then ENSO correction on top so La Nina doesn’t destroy the forecastMarket prices one bucket at 48%Model says 56%. Instant +EV.This is the baseline. Real edge starts here.Bookmark this thread and save it
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